How can Paris Agreement commitments be improved now to close the gap to 1.5°C?

In 2015, the Paris Agreement set a global goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit that warming level to 1.5°C. Governments pledged to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to play their part in fighting climate change and achieving this goal. But their pledges (called Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) are not yet enough. How much more do governments need to do on climate to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach?

Strengthening climate action

Move the sliders to strengthen countries' climate action pledges and see how global emissions and warming levels change.
The baseline emissions level in 2030 is set by the first set of climate action pledges brought forward under the Paris Agreement (see Methods). Moving the sliders allows you to strengthen these pledges and reduce emissions in 2030 by up to 80%. All emissions except those from land-use and forestry are included.

Some countries have a pledge that is weaker than the policies that are already in place. This is indicated with red markers on the sliders. Strengthening such pledges only reduces temperature rise when they are more ambitous than current policies (i.e. when the markers are blue).

You can also strengthen the pledges of other countries in each of the main world regions (scroll down).

Select which information you'd like to see for each of the major emitters:

Strengthening climate action elsewhere
Move the sliders to strengthen climate action at the regional level (excluding the big emitters above)

Emission trajectories for current pledges and strengthened pledges
Warming levels in 2100 under current pledges and strengthened pledges
What do these climate pledges mean for climate change impacts and risks?
Every tenth of a degree matters for climate change impacts and risks. The black line shows the level of risk from this climate action scenario for five key 'reasons for concern' identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Impacts and risks and different levels of warming

Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (Figure SPM.2)
https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/

Percentage share of emissions in 2030 (excluding land-use)

These pie charts show how emissions are distributed in the strengthened pledges scenario

Current pledges

Strengthened pledges

Percentage share of emissions in 2030 (excluding land-use)

These pie charts show how emissions are distributed in the strengthened pledges scenario

Current pledges

Strengthened pledges

Percentage share of emissions in 2030 (excluding land-use)

These pie-charts show how the relative shares of major world regions' emissions change when pledges are strengthened

Current pledges

Strengthened pledges

Emissions trajectories for major world regions

Current pledges

Strengthened pledges






Projected climate change impacts in 2100 for the selected strengthened pledges scenario, shown as a change compared with the average over the period 1990-2010

In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its report on global warming of 1.5°C, which clearly illustrated why the 1.5°C warming limit set out in the Paris Agreement is so important. Warming above 1.5°C would raise the likelihood of experiencing severe and even irreversible impacts, and could push people and ecosystems beyond limits to adaptation. Capping warming at 1.5°C would lower the risk of crossing dangerous tipping points, and maintain the effectiveness of a wider set of adaptation options. With these graphs, you can explore how the severity of climate change impacts across the world change with the level of climate action.

How to use this tool


How much do climate action pledges need to be strengthened to limit warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century?


Move the sliders to increase the level of climate action for each country or region to see how this affects global emissions, global temperature rise, and the severity of climate change risks at this level of warming.

The range of values on the sliders correspond to the NDC ambition ramp-up scenarios as defined by Geiges et al. (2019). These consist of four ambition scenarios namely the minimal, incremental, significant and transformational scenarios equivalent to 10%, 20%, 35% and 50% change in emission levels lower than the current NDC levels.

To see other plots and information, you can navigate to other sections by clicking the tab menu buttons. There is also a navigation button below the plots that will take you to the second page within each section. There are several configuration options above the plots which includes a button for plot download in png format, and buttons to select which data you can see when you hover over the plot.





What this tool shows


An incremental increase in ambition in NDC targets (defined here a 20% reduction in emissions below the level implied by current pledges) would put the 1.5°C temperature goal out of reach. If consistent incremental increases in ambition were continued beyond 2030, this tool shows that warming would reach over 2°C.

Closing the ambition gap and holding warming to 1.5°C would require a transformational ramping up of ambition for the period to 2030 and beyond. The global emissions level in 2030 implied by NDCs would need to be reduced by 50%, and such near-term increases in mitigation effort would need to be part of long-term strategies that enable sustained increases in ambition over the following decades.

All countries need to increase ambition if the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal is to be met. Ignoring the need to ramp up effort in the short-term risks locking in fossil fuel-based infrastructure, thus slowing the pace of transformation and making it more costly, with a large risk of stranded assets.

See our 2019 report for more key findings from our NDC ambition work.





Contacts


For more information on our work, please contact:

Claire Fyson
Climate Policy Analyst
Climate Policy Team
claire.fyson@climateanalytics.org

If you face any issues using the tool, please contact:

Emmanuel Adeleke
Student Assistant
Climate Policy Team
emmanuel.adeleke@climateanalytics.org