What this tool shows
An incremental increase in ambition in NDC targets (defined here a 20% reduction in emissions below the level implied by current pledges) would put the 1.5°C temperature goal out of reach. If consistent incremental increases in ambition were continued beyond 2030, this tool shows that warming would reach over 2°C.
Closing the ambition gap and holding warming to 1.5°C would require a transformational ramping up of ambition for the period to 2030 and beyond. The global emissions level in 2030 implied by NDCs would need to be reduced by 50%, and such near-term increases in mitigation effort would need to be part of long-term strategies that enable sustained increases in ambition over the following decades.
All countries need to increase ambition if the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal is to be met. Ignoring the need to ramp up effort in the short-term risks locking in fossil fuel-based infrastructure, thus slowing the pace of transformation and making it more costly, with a large risk of stranded assets.
See our 2019 report for more key findings from our NDC ambition work.